A Seed of a Decision?
By Javier
Surasky
Date
written: September 29, 2026
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Following
Bachelet’s withdrawal, Grossi regains three encouragements, Rodrigues-Birkett
holds steady, and Espinosa records the sharpest deterioration of the round
The fourth
straw poll to select the person who will succeed António Guterres at the helm
of the United Nations leaves a more clearly defined contest: Rebeca Grynspan
reaches ten encouragement votes, reduces her discouragements from five to
three, and becomes the only candidate to surpass the nine-vote threshold.
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, however, remains unchanged from her previous result,
just behind, but with fewer encouragements and more discouragements.
Rafael
Grossi regains three encouragement votes and re-emerges as a candidate in
contention, although a key source has informed us that at least two of the
discouragement votes come from permanent members.
From a
broader perspective, this new round shows a wider and possibly more revealing
shift: no-opinion votes fall from 19 to 11, moving more strongly toward
encouragement than discouragement (+5 and +3, respectively, compared with the
third straw poll).
Results of the Fourth Straw Poll
|
Candidate |
Encourage |
Discourage |
No opinion |
Δ encourage |
Δ discourage |
Δ no opinion |
|
Rebeca
Grynspan |
10 |
3 |
2 |
+1 |
−2 |
+1 |
|
Carolyn
Rodrigues-Birkett |
8 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Rafael Grossi |
8 |
7 |
0 |
+3 |
−1 |
−2 |
|
Olara Otunnu |
5 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
+1 |
−1 |
|
Macky Sall |
5 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
María
Fernanda Espinosa Garcés |
3 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
+4 |
−4 |
|
Ivonne A-Baki |
1 |
11 |
3 |
+1 |
+1 |
−2 |
Source: 1 for 8
billion
Because the
ballots are secret and colored ballots are still not being used to distinguish
permanent from non-permanent members, these are net changes: they do not allow
us to reconstruct how each member of the Security Council voted or to state
that a particular vote moved from one category to another.
Bachelet’s Withdrawal Reduces the Field to Seven Candidates
Michelle
Bachelet no longer participates in this round because, following the third
straw poll, she announced that she would not
continue her candidacy. Her final result had been one encouragement vote, 11 discouragements,
and three no-opinion votes.
Her
withdrawal shows that the polls have already begun to play a role in narrowing
the field: Bachelet did not wait for the differentiated ballots that will make
it possible to identify discouragements from permanent members. Instead, she
withdrew after both the qualitative deterioration of her candidacy (her
country, Chile, withdrew its support following Kast’s rise to power) and its
quantitative deterioration had become evident.
I retain the combinatorial indicator used in the previous analyses, whose formula, assumptions, and limitations are explained in the article on the first straw poll.
Possibility
That No Permanent Member of the Security Council Voted Against the Candidate
|
Candidate |
Indicator
in the third poll |
Indicator
in the fourth poll |
|
Rebeca Grynspan |
8.4% |
26.4% |
|
Carolyn
Rodrigues-Birkett |
4.2% |
4.2% |
|
Rafael Grossi |
0.7% |
1.9% |
|
Olara Otunnu |
1.9% |
0.7% |
|
Macky Sall |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
María Fernanda
Espinosa Garcés |
4.2% |
0.03% |
|
Ivonne A-Baki |
0.03% |
0% |
Source: author’s
calculations
Let us
recall that this indicator does not represent an actual probability of a veto,
but rather a combinatorial calculation of probabilities, and it does not allow
us to identify how any individual State voted.
Where Does Each Candidacy Stand After the Fourth Straw Poll?
Grynspan Consolidates the Most Favorable Position
In this
round, Grynspan combines three elements that no other candidacy brings
together: ten encouragement votes, only three discouragements, and two
no-opinion votes. This greatly reduces the possibility that she faces a
potential veto and makes her the only candidate to surpass the nine-vote
threshold required for election. In addition, she increases her support while
reducing both discouragements and no-opinion votes.
Rodrigues-Birkett Holds Her Ground
Rodrigues-Birkett
repeats exactly her result from the third round: eight encouragement votes, six
discouragements, and one no-opinion vote. This stability prevents further
deterioration, but is not enough to reverse the increase in opposition she
suffered in September. Arithmetically, she could reach nine encouragements if
her sole no-opinion vote turned into an encouragement; politically, the six
discouragements leave open the question of whether there is opposition from
permanent members.
These two
candidates are the potential contenders with a real chance of being selected by
the Council as the candidate it will propose to the General Assembly.
Behind
them, Grossi regains ground by recording the largest increase in encouragements
of the round, from five to eight, while reducing his discouragements by one,
from eight to seven. He also becomes the only candidate with no no-opinion
votes and, consequently, his candidacy appears to be polarizing positions both
for and against him. Added to this is the unconfirmed information that two
permanent members may be vetoing him.
Further
behind, and out of the race unless something unexpected happens, Otunnu retains
five encouragement votes, but his discouragements rise from seven to eight and
his no-opinion votes fall from three to two. The change, though minimal,
further weakens a position that was already unfavorable.
Sall
remains unchanged, with five encouragement votes, nine discouragements, and one
no-opinion vote. That stability does not improve a position that was already
far from the threshold and facing substantial opposition.
Espinosa
records the sharpest deterioration: she retains three encouragement votes, but
her discouragements increase from six to ten, while her no-opinion votes fall
from six to two. The fact that both variations involve four votes does not
allow us to state that they came from the same four States, but it does show
that the reduction in aggregate uncertainty worked against her candidacy.
A-Baki
receives her first encouragement vote, but also adds another discouragement,
bringing her total to eleven. We can therefore be certain that at least one
necessarily comes from a permanent member. The three no-opinion votes she
retains cannot change her situation even if all of them were to move in her
favor.
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Conclusion: More Clearly Defined Contest, but Still Unresolved
The fourth
round produces a clearer separation among the candidacies: Grynspan leads in
encouragements and receives the fewest discouragements, and among the remaining
candidates, only Rodrigues-Birkett appears to be in a position to challenge her
lead, although the lack of movement between the third and fourth straw polls is
not good news for her.
Among the
rest of the field, we see no changes that might suggest new viable
trajectories: Grossi’s improvement is also a sign that his candidacy divides
the Council; Otunnu deteriorates slightly; Sall remains stalled; Espinosa
suffers a sharp increase in discouragements; and she and A-Baki remain
arithmetically far from the minimum threshold of required votes.
The main conclusion is comparative. Grynspan emerges strengthened and extends her lead, but the secrecy of the ballots still prevents us from knowing whether any of her three discouragements carries the weight of a veto.
In
aggregate terms, we see an increase in clearly defined positions in favor of
certain candidates (35 in the previous straw poll and 40 in this one), but the
increase is concentrated in Grossi (+3), whose chances are low for the reasons
already noted regarding possible vetoes, and A-Baki (+1). Perhaps the
affirmative vote that most changes the round is the one gained by Grynspan.
However,
that perspective may lead to confusion: if we consider only the results
obtained by the seven candidates who remain active—which means excluding the
first round (A-Baki was not yet a candidate) and subtracting from the second
and third rounds the votes received by Bachelet, which ultimately led her to
withdraw her candidacy—the result is somewhat different. Aggregate
discouragement votes do not fall, but continue to increase. The general
trajectory observed in the third straw poll therefore continues in this
respect, although with less intensity. The major new development is instead the
sharp decline in no-opinion votes.
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Total discouragement votes continue to rise, from 51 to 54, driven especially by María Fernanda Espinosa’s setback (+4), while no-opinion votes, as expected, show a sharp reduction as the process advances, falling from 19 to 11 in what is the most notable aggregate movement of the round.
Taken
together, this shows that the Council is becoming less undecided and its
positions more clearly differentiated: the contest for the position now has a
clearer leader and a single significant contender, but the final outcome
remains open.
Now all that remains is to see the colors of the ballot behind each vote.
References
1 for 8
billion. (2026, September 29). Unofficial table corresponding to the fourth
straw poll. https://1for8billion.org/straw-polls-2026
France 24. (2026, September 21). Bachelet
renuncia a su candidatura a secretaria general de la ONU.
Doncel, L. (2026, September 29). Rebeca
Grynspan se distancia del resto de candidatos en la carrera por la jefatura de
la ONU en la cuarta votación informal. El País (España). https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-09-29/rebeca-grynspan-se-distancia-del-resto-candidatos-en-la-carrera-por-la-jefatura-de-la-onu-en-la-cuarta-votacion-informal.html
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